Many of us grew up with the concept that making regular, periodic contributions to our retirement account was a sound investment strategy. 这个想法是, 在波动的市场中, regularly investing a set amount would enable an individual to buy more shares when prices were low and fewer shares when prices were high.¹
Does this mean that taking regular, periodic withdrawals during retirement makes similar good sense?
Systematic withdrawals do the precise opposite of systematic investments by selling fewer shares when the price is high and more shares when the price is low. 这, 实际上, reduces the number of shares that may be able to participate in any subsequent market recovery.
在积累阶段, 如果一个投资组合缩水25%, it will require approximately a 33% return to get back to its pre-decline value.²
在分布阶段, if you withdraw 5% of your portfolio for income and suffer the same 25% market decline, you would need to see a 43% market rebound to get back to pre-decline value.²
在积累阶段, investors tend to focus on average annual rates of return, 更少地关注返回的序列. 如果你是买入并持有投资者, ignoring short-term fluctuations may be a sound long-term approach.
If you are in retirement, however, you absolutely care about the sequence of the annual returns.
例如, comparable portfolios might deliver the same average annual return over a 20- or 30-year period, but they could have radically different outcomes in terms of account balance and income production. 一般来说, negative returns in the early years of your retirement can potentially reduce how long your assets can be expected to last.
美国作家H.L. 门肯曾经说过, “For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, 简单的, 和错误的.”³
Anticipating a lifetime of withdrawals from a defined asset pool over an indefinite period of time is a complex challenge for which there is no 简单的 solution. Pursuing this challenge can require creative approaches and persistent vigilance.
- Dollar-cost averaging does not protect against a loss in a declining market or guarantee a profit in a rising market. Dollar-cost averaging is the process of investing a fixed amount of money in an investment vehicle at regular intervals, 通常每月, 在很长一段时间内，不管价格如何. Investors should evaluate their financial ability to continue making purchases through periods of declining and rising prices. The return and principal value of stock prices will fluctuate as market conditions change. 分享s, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost.
- 这 is a hypothetical example used for illustrative purposes only. It is not representative of any specific investment or combination of investments.
- BrainyQuote, 2021年3月.
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